With two operational refineries and reliance on imported crude, South Africa faces potential fuel rationing and price hikes amid Middle East geopolitical instability.
Image: Ayanda Ndamane / Independent Newspapers Archives
South Africa's fuel supply, though currently stable, is increasingly vulnerable due to escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions. Experts warn that reliance on imported crude and reduced local refining capacity exposes the country to supply chain disruptions, potentially resulting in fuel rationing and long queues at petrol stations.
The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources (DMPR) reassured the public that there is “currently no immediate risk of fuel shortages in South Africa.”
The Fuels Industry Association of South Africa (FIASA) echoed this sentiment, stating that companies have already implemented “controlled allocation measures to ensure ratable and equitable supply to all customers” and are banning ad hoc or unplanned demand “to prevent market speculation and stockpiling by opportunistic buyers.”
South Africa relies on only two operational crude oil refineries, NATREF and Astron Energy, in addition to the Sasol Secunda coal-to-liquids plant, following the permanent shutdown of two major refineries in recent years. As reported by IOL.
Energy and power expert Professor Vally Padayachee cautioned that this reduced capacity is a significant liability.
“South Africa's reliance on only two operational crude oil refineries, combined with the Sasol Secunda plant, still leaves us susceptible to the risk of disruptions in the supply chain, especially given our dependence on imported crude oil,” he said.
“It would be prudent for South Africans to remain vigilant, as any sudden geopolitical escalation could lead to potentially fuel rationing and lengthy queues at petrol stations.”
James Lorimer, the DA spokesperson on Mineral and Petroleum Resources, noted that while a possible shortage is a potential concern, it is not immediate.
Lorimer stated that SA is “not too badly off” regarding crude oil, with only 18% coming from Saudi Arabia, and most sourced from West African countries such as Nigeria, Angola, and Ghana.
He added that close to 40% of SA's fuel is coal-derived (Sasol), 10% comes from the NATREF refinery, and the operational Astron refinery in the Western Cape currently has adequate crude supplies.
Lorimer also expressed concern over imported processed petrol.
“A lot of our fuel, now that our other refineries are down, comes in as already processed petrol. For that, we depend on refineries overseas,” he said, noting much of this pre-processed fuel comes from India and the UAE.
The DMPR confirmed that current operational facilities rely on crude oil imports primarily from West Africa, increasingly supplemented by other African countries. Oil companies that previously imported refined products from conflict-affected regions are exploring alternative supply sources to ensure uninterrupted domestic fuel availability.
FIASA and industry stakeholders are increasing monitoring efforts. While they currently meet weekly with the DMPR, Transnet, LPG wholesalers, and oil companies, the frequency will “increase to daily meetings from March 16, 2026, to enable real-time coordination and rapid decision-making.”
Gavin Kelly, CEO of the Road Freight Association, warned that higher fuel costs affect more than just consumers.
“For an economy like South Africa, which imports oil, the outcome is often inevitable: higher domestic energy prices. Once fuel prices increase, the cost of moving goods... finally to retailers is exposed to these input price increases,” he said.
Kelly noted transport companies must either raise rates, passing costs to consumers, or absorb the costs, which strains “cash flow and reserves.”
Ernst van Biljon, head lecturer of Supply Chain Management at IMM Graduate School, highlighted the economic risks.
“As a net importer of crude oil, higher global prices feed directly into South Africa’s domestic fuel costs, as long as road transport remains the backbone of the country’s logistics system,” he said, urging proactive planning to “avoid production shutdowns and supply chains not operating at optimal levels.”
Lorimer added that even if supplies remain, prices will rise.
“The problem is that even if we do have enough, the price is going to go up,” he said. “Perhaps another R3 a litre... is probably more what we've got to worry about if this war goes on, if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed for a couple of months.”
The National Automobile Dealers’ Association (NADA) noted that rising logistics costs will place “additional strain on already constrained consumer budgets,” affecting the full basket of goods and services.
Concerns are also rising over potential LPG supply scarcity as winter demand peaks. FIASA said LPG supply is stable, but Professor Padayachee sees potential shortages as “a cause for concern.”
“It is critical for the government and industry to ensure adequate reserves of LPG and to secure reliable local production to meet seasonal demands, thereby preventing any shortages,” he said.
Professor Padayachee acknowledged government monitoring but called for long-term strategy.
“While they have reassured the public about current conditions and planned fuel imports, a long-term, robust strategy is essential. This should include increasing local refining capacity, maintaining strategic reserves, and investing in renewable energy sources to reduce our overall dependency on imports,” he said.
Lorimer advised: “I think the message that I would say to people is be aware of it. But there’s no reason to get hysterical at all at the moment.”
Padayachee suggested learning from the Eskom load shedding crisis, prioritising diversification and stakeholder collaboration, and adopting a comprehensive approach to ensure energy security, sustainability, and resilience against domestic and international challenges.
SATURDAY STAR